01 June 2026
Victorian Budget 2026–27: What does $239 million for public dentistry really mean?
The Victorian Government has allocated $239 million for public dental services in FY2026–27.
At face value, that appears to be an increase on last year’s budget. But the reality is more complex—and far more concerning.
Budget vs reality: a growing gap
What the government budgets for dental services and what they actually spend are often very different.
- FY2025–26 budget: $218.3 million
- Estimated actual spend: $320.9 million
- Variance: +$100 million (47% over budget)
This means the new $239 million allocation is:
- A modest 9% increase on last year’s budgeted figure
- But 34% lower than what the system actually utilised.
Over the past decade, this pattern has repeated. As shown in the chart below:
- Budget allocations (dark blue) consistently fall short
- Actual spending (teal) increasingly exceeds projections
- Variance (orange line) has become more volatile in recent years
This raises a fundamental question: are budgets reflecting real system costs at all?
Where does the funding go?
Budget papers provide limited clarity on how funding flows through the system.
The Statement of Priorities between the Minister for Health and Oral Health Victoria (OHV) offers some insight. Funding is spread across:
- Royal Dental Hospital of Melbourne (RDHM) services
- Community dental services via public providers
- Purchased care (including private sector voucher schemes)
- Oral health promotion programs
- IT systems and infrastructure (e.g. Titanium platform transition)
- Workforce and system support functions
(From Oral Health Victoria – Statement of Priorities 2025-2026)
5 Includes funding under the following activities and activity numbers: Acute activity – Admitted Patients; HealthSMART Services; Dental Services Purchasing; Clinical Leadership and Governance; Capital Planning and Development; Regional Service System Support; Data Management and IT.
6 Excludes proposed Federal Funding Agreement funding ($24,800,000) and Smile Squad (TBC).
These categories are broad, and it remains difficult to trace how funding translates into actual service delivery capacity.
Additionally,
- Federal contributions fluctuate year to year,
- Neither state nor federal funding has kept pace with inflation,
- Workforce pressures persist, with Victorian public sector wages well below national averages.
Is the public service being asked to do more with less?
Performance measures provide a partial answer.
Targets such as:
- Number of people treated (stated as less than 15% of the total eligible population)
- Average waiting times
suggest a system under strain.
An average waiting time of 23 months for care is clinically unacceptable—particularly for populations with higher oral disease risk.
This is compounded by system design constraints, including:
- Mandatory waiting periods before re-entering general care lists, and
- Limited capacity to meet increasing demand.
The bottom line
The public dental system is not simply experiencing short-term pressure—it is structurally underfunded.
Without significant reform, the system will continue to:
- Be unable to meet population need,
- Operate with very limited capability,
- Face ongoing workforce recruitment and retention challenges.
Addressing this will require:
- Funding that reflects actual service demand,
- Improved transparency in how resources are allocated,
- Investment in workforce sustainability.
The ADAVB is actively advocating for change, working in partnership with local public oral health providers to engage Members of Parliament and raise awareness of the structural pressures facing the sector. This includes direct advocacy on the need for sustainable funding, workforce investment, and system reform to ensure equitable access to care for all Victorians.
